Any move by the US to further increase tariffs or import duties on Indian goods could severely impact the country’s exports to Washington, experts said.
However, they said, it might also push exporters to accelerate diversification and de-risk their overseas markets.
US President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters on Sunday, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi knew he was unhappy with India’s purchases of Russian oil and that Washington could raise tariffs on New Delhi “very quickly.” The experts added that as the tariff threat hardened, India must take a ‘clean call’ on Russian oil.
“Indian exports to the US have already fallen 20.7 per cent between May and November 2025, and further tariff escalation could trigger a steeper decline,” economic think tank GTRI said on Monday. It said Indian goods were already facing a steep 50 per cent tariff, with 25 per cent tied directly to Russian crude purchases.
“India, unlike China, does not have strategic leverage over the US. China is the biggest buyer of Russian Crude, but the US has ignored it, fearing consequences. India has doubled imports of petroleum crude and products from the US, but the US will ignore this,” Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava said.
Apex exporters’ body FIEO too said that beyond the existing 50 per cent tariff, a further hike by the US “would badly hit Indian exports, particularly in traditional sectors of exports”.
“But they can also act as a catalyst for faster diversification and de-risking. While some price-sensitive trade may shrink, such pressures encourage exporters to reduce over-dependence on a single market, explore alternative destinations, and upgrade products and processes,” Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) director general Ajay Sahai said.
